据油价网7月25日报道称，由于国际货币基金组织（IMF）发布的乐观预测，油价周二上午再次上涨。

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周二，国际货币基金组织根据第一季度乐观的经济活动上调了2023年全球增长预期。国际货币基金组织目前估计，2023年美国国内生产总值将增长3%，比4月份公布的预测增长0.2个百分点。2024年保持不变，为3%。

消息传出后，油价上涨，WTI突破79美元大关。美国东部时间7月25日上午10时52分，WTI的交易价格为79.05美元，当日上涨0.31美元（0.39%）。布伦特原油价格上涨至83美元以上，当日上涨0.29美元（+0.35%）。

油价将取决于美国石油协会（API）对美国原油和原油产品库存变动的估计。

尽管高于之前的估计，但国际货币基金组织的预测仍然反映了经济疲软，因为平均GDP增长率低于前十年的均值3.8%。

国际货币基金组织首席经济学家Pierre Olivier Gourinchas在周二接受路透社采访时表示：“五年后，我们看到的实际增长率接近3.0%，可能略高于3.0%。与疫情前相比，这是一个显著的放缓。”

国际货币基金组织（IMF）在其预测中表示，虽然由于世界卫生组织（WHO）已结束全球卫生紧急状况警示，产品运输成本和交付时间已恢复到疫情前的水平，但通货膨胀仍在蚕食家庭购买力。此外，高利率提高了借贷成本，而在疫情期间建立的储蓄正在减少。

国际货币基金组织在其展望中警告称，如果地缘政治恶化，或者极端气温进一步推高大宗商品价格，通货膨胀可能会进一步上升。

梁金燕 译自 油价网

原文如下：

Oil Prices Tick Higher On Optimistic Economic Forecasts

Oil prices saw another rise on Tuesday morning on optimistic forecasts published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

On Tuesday, the IMF raised its 2023 global growth estimates based on promising economic activity in Q1. For 2023, the IMF is now estimating a 3% GDP growth—up 0.2 percentage points from its forecast published in April. Its 2024 remains unchanged at 3.0%.

Oil prices rose on the news, with WTI surpassing the $79 mark. WTI was trading at $79.05 as of 10:52 am ET, up $0.31 (0.39%) on the day. Brent crude rose above $83, up $0.29 (+0.35%) on the day.

Oil prices will now be subjected to estimates from the American Petroleum Institute (API) later this afternoon on U.S. crude oil and crude products inventory moves.

While higher than previous estimates, the IMF"s forecast is still reflective of economic weakness and below the average 3.8% GDP growth seen across the previous decade.

"What we are seeing when we look five years out is actually close to 3.0%, maybe a little bit above 3.0%. This is a significant slowdown compared to what we had pre-COVID," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told Reuters in a Tuesday interview.

The IMF stated in its forecast that while shipping costs and delivery times have returned to pre-pandemic levels now that the WHO has ended the global health emergency, inflation continues to eat away at household buying power. In addition, high interest rates have raised the cost of borrowing, while savings built during the pandemic are receding.

The IMF included a warning in its outlook that inflation could rise further should the war in Ukraine worsen, or if extreme temperatures raise commodity prices further.

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